AUSTRALIAN NAVY FOUNDATION DAY "CRESWELL ORATION"
108th. ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION

"2009 Creswell Oration"
by
Rear Admiral Stephen Gilmore AM CSC RAN
Chief Capability Development.

(Verbatim as presented, without overhead slides)

1 March 2009.

"New Generation Navy -
The Capability, Shape and Form of the RAN
in 2014"

by

RADM Steve Gilmore AM CSC RAN
Commander Australian Navy Systems Command

May I begin by expressing my most sincere appreciation for being given this opportunity to deliver the 2009 Creswell Oration.
I feel most honoured to have been asked and hope that I can provide a presentation that matches the quality of those who have gone before me over a number of years. I have been given the choice of nominating my topic and I have perhaps departed from tradition by deciding to focus on the future vice speaking on a more historical subject.
The RAN is nearing its 100th year (in 2011) under that title and I believe we are moving toward a watershed moment from a capability perspective.
In 2014, the Navy will begin introducing into service, two new classes of ship that will present significantly enhanced or indeed new capability to the ADF. From that year on, I believe the RAN will have reached a truly balanced force structure and advanced warfighting capability for the first time in decades - and arguably, since being formed. I will further explain this assertion later.
I must indicate that I am not pre determining what might be provided in the forthcoming White Paper as the Navy of 2014 is already decided. The ships, submarines, aircraft and facilities that will make up Navy are already in existence or are projects underway and making way. I intend spending the majority of my presentation talking about the Air Warfare Destroyer (AWD) and Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) projects where I unashamedly hope to wet your appetites and provide an insight into the highly impressive capability they will bring.
I will also talk more broadly about a number of other projects that will enhance our nation's sea power. This will include not only Navy projects but also Army and Air Force projects with clear maritime application.
I would however like to set the scene by a short review of why sea power is so vital to Australia and what characterises the need, shape and form of the ADF. Whilst I recognise the significant maritime knowledge present in this venue today, I would proffer that it is always of value to reconfirm what Seapower means to us.
Geoffrey Till summarises the dominance of the sea in his 2004 publication "Sea Power - A Guide to the 21st Century"1. He reminds us that nearly ¾ of the world is covered by the sea - 350 million square kilometres of it in fact.
It is the single largest environment on earth. The sea regulates the planet's climate. Indeed life began in the sea and has ever since been dominated by it. The sea is crucial to our way of life - to our very survival as a species.
He goes on to say:
Mankind did not take to the sea for any single cause but for a variety of reasons that are linked to the four attributes of the sea itself:

- as a resource;
- as a means of transportation;
- as a means of information; and
- as a means of dominion.

I think it is instructive to remember that 70% of the earth's population lives within 150km of the sea.
In Australia's case this statistic rises to 95%.
I am sure no one present would doubt that for our nation, the sea is of pre eminent importance - to our history, our existence and our future.
Standing back and looking at a map of the globe, we clearly see the dominance of the colour blue, particularly as we focus on our country and the region in which we reside.
As CN recently stated, 'the fundamental realities of Australia's geographical environment dictates that our enduring national military strategy will always be maritime in nature'.
As an island continent in a ever globalising world, we and the many nations in the region are dependent on the sea for economic development and well being. The interconnected nature of the world now is such that our area of strategic interest has burgeoned - events some distance from Australia can have a direct and rapid effect on us. That 99% of our trade by volume and 75% by value travels across the sea and our various Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC's), is a most underpinning statistic.
We must remember that our trading partners are some distance away and shipping routes pass through a number of choke points and an archipelagic geography.
In 2006, the Bureau of Transport estimated that over the next 20 years, the volume of containerised trade passing through Australian ports would increase steadily at 5.4% per annum.
One clear aspect of our maritime security challenge is distance. We have a maritime jurisdictional area of some 8 million nautical miles. While the affect of the current global financial circumstances might alter this forecast, it is clear that protecting SLOCs will remain vital well into the future.
Our region has been altering in strategic circumstance for some years now and this has shaped our thinking in relation to the Navy (and ADF) we are now developing as we march toward 2014. Australia has previously enjoyed a qualitative capability edge over many of the nations across the region as a consequence of economic advantage.
This is changing and we see considerable improvement in military capability. Hopefully, the rise of China and India and the re emergence of Russia will happen peacefully and result in a cooperative region.
Chief of Navy highlighted recently that 'history tells us that even if large scale conflicts are avoided, friction will manage to manifest itself somewhere that requires military forces'.
There are many evolving or potential friction points around our region:

* disputed territory;
* competition for resources;
* effects of climate change;
* cultural differences;
* organised crime; and
* fragile states,

to name but a few.
Complexity and uncertainty have been identified as characterising future threat scenarios - non state actors with increasingly impressive capabilities are a feature of the complex environment that our maritime forces are, and will continue to operate in.
Span of Maritime Operations
So what has all that meant in relation to the capability, shape and form of the RAN in 2014?
It generates the circumstance where maritime forces will continue to participate across a broad spectrum of operations.
A cursory glance of RAN activity over the past decade shows that we have been routinely called upon to carry out operations across the diplomatic, constabulary and military domains of established maritime tasks.
This diagram demonstrates what these activities range from peace to war. From border protection in our North to disaster relief in Indonesia, counter insurgency and Maritime Support Operations in the Northern Arabian Gulf, peacekeeping in the Soloman Islands, intervention in East Timor and conflict in Iraq - the RAN has participated.
There is no indication this is likely to change.

Operating Environment
Adding to the determinant of Navy (and ADF) force structure, is the circumstance that our geography imposes. The RAN operates in a maritime zone that spans from the tropical to sub Antarctic and from open ocean to the littoral. The RAN must operate over great distance and routinely without forward operating bases.
Australian Sea Power
All that I have just covered, combines to play a significant part in determining the capability, shape and form of Navy in 2014 and whilst I hope I have reminded us all of the need for sea power and our own unique circumstance, there is value in recognising what makes up sea power as it is germane in describing how the ADF has based the plans for maritime capability around 2014.
Sea power is of course more than a Navy - albeit it is usually a most dominant component part. We have often measured our sea power from a purely Navy perspective and this is perhaps misleading. Geoffrey Till highlights that sea power embraces the contribution that other services can make at sea. He adds that it is also the contribution that Navies make to events on land and air.
This is I believe highly relevant in the Australian context. Non military aspects of sea use and enablers also feature in the overall make up of a nations sea power - ship building and repair and port infrastructure are key examples.
Over the past decade, from East Timor operations on, Australia has moved toward a more coherent and effective joint force. This trend will continue and most certainly be an underpinning feature of the Navy in 2014. Air Force and Army capability has more routinely been selected with a view on how it will contribute to a joint force - there are maritime aspects to this which in sum will affect our overall sea power.
Joint capability in any environment is much more than equipment and hardware. It is realised through underpinning joint doctrine, concepts, capability development and training - these have been features of recent years and greatly assisted in generating credible ADF joint capability.
The advent of a truly integrated Joint Operations Command in 2007 has heralded a monumental change for the ADF. It has meant that the services do not conduct operations. The services now raise, train and sustain in order to provide effective forces to a joint command for the conduct of directed activities from humanitarian assistance and border protection to combat operations.
This approach will be further refined over the next few years and will be a significant characteristic of the RAN in 2014. The New Generation Navy will see changes in structure, culture and leadership in order to operate in this manner to an optimum level.
A Balanced Force Structure
A balanced force is clearly needed if Australia is to operate effectively in the large areas I have indicated; across the broad spectrum of maritime operations discussed; over the range of geographic and climatic circumstances highlighted; and in a coherent joint manner. The development of the various capability projects that will present the ADF of 2014, has recognised that we cannot weight structures to specific circumstance. The period of time necessary to introduce or re-introduce specific capabilities make anything less than balance a high risk scenario. A balanced force enables the generation of combinations that allow coherent, flexible and if necessary, graduated options to our government.
CN has referred to these 'combinations' as Capability Task Groups. He has stated that the Task Group concept will allow us to concentrate on developing a range of capabilities which may be incorporated into one unit, although more likely involve the preparation of a group of ships with the scope to include non Navy units and personnel.
An example used by CN is anti-submarine warfare where joint usage of Airbourne Early Warning and Control Aircraft, submarines, point defence weapons, area weapons, cooperative engagement capability and the Aegis system might all be utilised. Only a balanced fleet can achieve Task Group capacity.
The 2014 Fleet - Balanced Capability
I contend that in 2014 the RAN and ADF will enter a period where a balanced maritime force structure will be achieved for the first time in decades. Clearly the introduction of the AWD and LHD are catalysts for that outcome in my view. Their introduction in conjunction with other in service, evolved and Army and Air Force projects, will signal a circumstance where we have significant capability across a very broad range of warfare mediums.
In the past, we have indeed had very impressive capabilities in service (perhaps best described as depth), but there have been shortfalls in concurrent breadth For example, in the '50s and '60s we operated aircraft carriers but did not have a submarine force and a smaller surface combatant force than today. There was little capacity for effective and enduring EEZ patrol, no underway replenishment ship until '62 and no amphibious capability - with sea lift only in existence.
In the '70s, we retained an aircraft carrier capability, had introduced submarines although our mine counter measures capability waned and compared to today, we operated only one tanker. By 1974, we had lost our sea lift capacity. In the '80s the carrier was gone, mine counter measures capability was almost non existent and only limited amphibious capacity had been re-introduced via the heavy landing craft and HMAS TOBRUK.
On the positive side, we had introduced more effective patrol boats and replaced older frigates with new. In the '90s the imbalance continued. A second underway replenishment ship was added and further new frigates were acquired along with Seahawk helicopters.
This period however, saw no significant improvement in mine warfare, amphibious warfare or anti-submarine warfare capability. In 2009, we are a much better balanced force.
The achievement of this balance began during the last nine years. Specifically we have evolved an increasingly capable submarine force, introduced a capacity for Army battle group size amphibious operations developed and achieved a most credible offshore patrol and response force.
An effective mine counter measures force and further evolved at sea replenishment complement an increasingly potent frigate force. That said there are still some shortfalls

* area air warfare,
* strike,
* ASW, and
* expeditionary operations

need attention.
The introduction of AWD and LHD will go a long way to address these shortfalls and further develop the balance. There is also some quality in quantity and we are already operating more commissioned ships than at any other time since World War II. This is amplified by multi crewing and the distribution of the fleet around the nation.
The Joint Contribution
The balance I have mentioned is being further improved by a number of significant Air Force projects that will deliver maritime capability. Specifically, those are the F/A18 Super Hornet, F35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft, KC3OA air to air tanker fleet, ongoing improvements to the impressive AP3C Orion's and the likelihood of uninhabited aerial vehicles in the maritime surveillance role. Army aviation capability is on the rise with the introduction of the MRH 90, Tiger Armed Reconnaissance helo and upgraded and additional Chinooks. All are capable of operating from the LHD's in large numbers and this is a significant step forward.
Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyer
So much for the theory and intent regarding the New Generation Navy of 2014. I would now like to spend some time showing you what our new and evolving capability will look like. Firstly the Hobart Class destroyer. The project to deliver our next generation of destroyer has been underway for a while.
AWD Program
Significant Dates

Phase 1 was project definition between 2003-2005,
Phase 2 was design between 2005-2007; and
Phase 3 is build between 2007-2018.

In Service Support will be provided from 2014 to 2044. The AWD will be delivered via an Alliance of the Commonwealth of Australia, Raytheon Australia and ASC Shipbuilder Pty Ltd. Contract Signature was achieved on 4 October 2007 for a project of $8 billion that will see delivery of:

Ship 1, HMAS Hobart in late 2014;
Ship 2, HMAS Brisbane in early 2016; and
Ship 3, HMAS Sydney by mid 2017.

The project is currently on track with preliminary design review conducted as scheduled in Dec 2008.
AWD Purpose
Simply stated, the endorsed purpose for the AWD is to achieve 'Sea Control, in conjunction with other ADF or Coalition, Maritime, Air and Land Forces'. I might add to what degree it can rely on others is important - as it may have to perform any of the missions on its own at times, for example, if out of range of land based air cover or support Achieving sea control forms the basis for the AWD Capability Definition.
AWD Missions
The Defence endorsed primary missions of the AWD are to control the area air environment; facilitate ADF interoperability; control the surface and sub-surface environment; protect shipping; collect and evaluate intelligence information; provide sustained presence; deliver operational and tactical land strike; deliver strategic strike; and enable interoperability with coalition forces.
Quite obviously, principle amongst these missions is control of the area air environment although the others are of clear import. As you can see they span the various warfare mediums and show the AWD's key contribution to achieving sea control in a joint Australian force.
As you would expect the AWD, like all major combatant ships will also be required to conduct a range of secondary missions in support of various standing government policy and directions. These include constabulary operations, Defence aid to the civil community, collection of environmental data, service protected/ assisted evacuations and diplomatic roles.
This view (picture not included) shows the many component parts of the Hobart Class, warfare system. At 7000 tonnes full load displacement, these ships are of World War II light cruiser size. The ships will be 146m in length, have a top speed of 28 knots and a range of over 5000NM at 18 knots. They will have a combined diesel and gas turbine propulsion system and accommodation for up to 234, with space for a Task Group Commander and staff, as well as aircrew and trainees. The impressive size of these destroyers is well demonstrated when compared to the FFG7 and ANZAC class frigates.
The combat capability of the Hobart class is based on the highly impressive state of the art Aegis system which incorporates the AN SPY 1 D (V) phased array radar enabling advanced long range air defence, capable of engaging multiple aircraft and missiles in excess of 180km. For closer range and very low level target detection, the ships will also be equipped with a horizon search radar.
The Aegis system can detect and manage up to 90 targets simultaneously out to a distance of some 600km.
In conjunction with the horizon search radar and EW suite, the AWD will utilise its 48 cell missile launcher holding 40 SM2 long range weapons and 32 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) along with an Electronic Attack (EA) system, Nulka Active Electronic Counter Measure (AECM) decoys and gunnery systems for air defence. Cannister launched Harpoon Block 2 anti-ship and land attack weapons and the single 5" 62 calibre gun capable of firing extended range rounds to 50+ NM, will present formidable surface strike and naval gunfire support capability. An impressive ASW suite including, for the first time in the RAN, a surface borne towed array sonar, as well as a hull mounted sonar, torpedo defence system, internally launched ASW torpedoes and a helicopter with sensors and weapons, will be fitted to the Hobart Class.
The inclusion of the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) is another first for the ADF.
This advanced system links C2, sensor and weapon grids of fitted units (to include all 3 ships and potentially RAAF AEWC aircraft), enabling a capacity to fire weapons from one unit by another and share a vast amount of data.
This view demonstrates the impressive size of the AWD very well I think. In a quick visual canter through parts of the ship, this first view shows the 48 cell vertical launch missile 'farm' and 5" 62 cal gun on forecastle.
The AWD will have internally launched torpedo tubes within the weapon magazine for ease of re-load. The Aegis system in the Ops room is the heart of the ship's combat capability.
The principle command displays from where the ship will be fought provide impressive visual fusing of the many sensor systems. A highly automated and well layed out Bridge will enable effective manoeuvring in the open ocean and littoral environments.
The modern world of a stoker - the AWD's MCR is more like a sophisticated operations room. The ships are well fitted out for crew habitability. This view shows the Wardroom dining space. The Wardroom recreation space or ante room is functional and comfortable. The Junior Sailors dining space is both spacious, functional and modern.
JP 2048 Ph 4A/B - CANBERRA Class Amphibious Ships
So on to the Canberra Class Amphibious ships or LHDs. At 27,000 tonnes these ships will be the largest warships to have been operated by the RAN (by comparison, the aircraft carrier HMAS MELBOURNE was 20,000 tonnes) They introduce a capacity for true expeditionary operations and enable the embarkation, transport, landing, command and support of a land force of up 1000 personnel per ship. They will have extremely impressive joint C2 facilities which will enable the coordination of significant forces in a dynamic war fighting environment.
The programme to introduce the ships has begun with first steel already cut. The hulls will be constructed by Navantia in Spain as a follow on to the lead ship for the Spanish Armada, the Juan Carlos. The superstructure and combat system installation will occur at the BAE shipyard at Williamstown in Melbourne. The first ship (CANBERRA) will be delivered to Australia in mid 2012, with initial operational release or IOR intended for Jan 2014. It is not long before we shall peer upwards from a wharf at these impressive ships! This computer generated graphic gives a very good impression of the size of the CANBERRA Class.
The aviation facilities are clearly dominant. A large flight deck with launch and recovery spots for six medium size helo's is shown. As the design is intended to be utilised as an alternate aircraft carrier by the Spanish Armada, they are fitted with a ski jump arrangement at the bow to facilitate the launch of STOVL aircraft such as the Harrier or JSF. The ship can carry a large number of aircraft - up to 16 each in an amphibious role or two dozen or so if used more exclusively in an air operations capacity.
Considerable space exists for the carriage of vehicles and this includes the full breadth of current and future Army inventory from land rover to Abrams tank. Importantly, for the first time in the RAN,the CANBERRA Class will have a floodable dock aft from which four organic landing craft can operate. The dock allows for waterborne activity in an increased sea state as it provides a 'sheltered harbour' for these key ship to shore 'connectors'.
The government has recently announced the selection of the Spanish designed LCM 1E class as the organic water craft for the CANBERRA class. These vessels are able to reach speeds of over 20 knots. Four will be carried in each LHD and they can accommodate all current and forecast equipment including the Abrams tank. The first craft will be delivered in April 2013 allowing time for test, evaluation and training prior to entry into service of the LHD's.
SEA 1448/1348 - Enhanced FFH
The two 'big' projects are not all that will deliver increased capability by, or during 2014. Our ANZAC Class frigates are expected to receive a significant upgrade under the forthcoming Anti-Ship Missile Defence (ASMD) project along with a number of other improvements now underway. Perhaps central to the new generation ANZAC, is the installation of the Australian designed and built CEAFAR active phased array radar and the associated CEAMOUNT fire control radar. Together they will present significant capability to detect, track and engage multiple air targets. At least 10 air targets can be engaged simultaneously by evolved sea sparrow missiles and the 5 inch gun system. Fitting of the Harpoon block 2 anti-submarine missile (ASM), mine and obstacle avoidance sonar, as well as a range of networking systems and the SAAB new combat management system (shown above), will underpin a capacity to effectively operate in the complex littoral environment. After highly successful trials of CEAFAR at sea in 2008, HMAS PERTH will be the first ship to receive the CEAFAR/ CEAMOUNT system during the course of 2009/10. The majority of the class will be completed by 2014.
SEA 1429/SEA 1439 - Collins Class Improvements
The COLLINS Class submarine has been undergoing substantial upgrade and improvement during recent times. A programme to replace the much discussed combat system with a joint (US/ Australia) evolved system now being fitted to the latest American nuclear powered attack subs is underway. HMAS WALLER received this system during 2007/ 2008 and has proven it as highly successful in recent trials. HMAS FARNCOMB is also now at sea with the system. The upgrade programme has also seen the installation of the latest USN torpedo - the MK 48 advanced capability CBASS weapon - also recently proved with WALLER sinking an ex USN Destroyer with a single torpedo off Hawaii last year. Planned development of the EW and comms system will have also occurred by 2014. The COLLINS Class is now well and truly second to none and a significant part of the balanced fleet.
ROYAL AUSTRALIAN NAVY ESTABLISHMENTS
I have included this slide to highlight the extensive shore support footprint Navy enjoys. Our Navy establishments enable capability generation providing facilities that train our people, allow maintenance and repair of our ships as well as support and accommodation to personnel.
The 11 commissioned establishments and 3 regional HQ's are providing this support right now with a number soon to receive extensive upgrades in order to play their part in a new generation Navy. Introduction Of great interest and relevance to this gathering is I believe, the physical plans for HMAS CRESWELL. A vital establishment which has at times however had a future characterised by uncertainty - particularly during the late 80s/ early 90s after the opening of ADFA, some aspects of the establishment are feeling the test of time. Last year a project to address the full gamut of facility short comings was approved. Before giving you a feel for what the upgraded CRESWELL will look like it is important to understand what the College now does or will do.
CRESWELL / RANC TRAINING - 2014
In 2014, CRESWELL will be a very busy commissioned naval establishment and a principal Navy training institution.
While maintaining its mantle as the 'Cradle of Officer Training' in the RAN, the Royal Australian Naval College will be intimately involved in providing or managing other important training programs. The CO of CRESWELL will continue to be the 'Training Authority - Initial Training, Leadership and Management' (TA-ITLM), responsible for the oversight of both the Officers' and Sailors' 'Leadership, Management and Personal Development' (LMPD) training continuums.
This slide shows the ever evolving range of training undertaken at CRESWELL. By 2014, the review of the Sailors' LMPD training continuum currently underway will have been completed and new promotion courses will be in place. It is forecast that the 'Chief Petty Officer Promotion Course' and the 'Warrant Officer Promotion Course' will be delivered as residential programs at CRESWELL; while the 'Leading Seaman & Petty Officer Promotion Courses' will be conducted at 'Sailors Leadership & Management Faculties' (in the East and West).
The Current State
Beginning in June this year, the $83 M redevelopment will change the face of RANC.
Cerberus and Geelong Houses - present and future
Perhaps the most obvious change is in fact a visual return to the past. The top view shows how part of the College looks today. For some of us here we see the obvious omission of what was known as Geelong House - it is where the small demountable 'Gunroom' building stands on the left and it was a mirror image of the now abandoned Cerberus House on the right. The redevelopment will see a most impressive facility constructed that will externally look like the old building and return symmetry and heritage to the College. With the redevelopment of CRESWELL will come modern instructional and office facilities; a new gymnasium and indoor pool; and additional accommodation. This will allow the cornerstone of the College, New Entry Officers Course (NEOC), to cater for increased numbers. By providing accommodation for over 150 trainees, a sixth Division - will be stood up. In addition, a number of other Initial Entry Officers Courses will be conducted to train lateral entry officers from Allied Navies; those commissioned from within the Service; Reserve Officers; and to give those proceeding straight to university studies (other than ADFA) an introduction to the Navy.
PHYSICAL FITNESS CENTRE
This slide shows another key outcome of the redevelopment - the physical fitness centre and indoor pool. This centre will be a first class facility that can accommodate the increased numbers of personnel at the base. Closing Remarks I think that VADM Creswell would have been particularly impressed by the Naval College that he originally saw introduced into service and now bears his name. On that note, I will conclude my presentation and hope that I have painted a picture of our New Generation Navy and provided a portal into the RAN and ADF maritime capability, shape and form in 2014. Thank you I should be delighted to take questions.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Geoffrey Till, Seapower, A Guide for the Twenty - First Century (Frank Cass Publishers, London, 2004) p. 6-7.
2. VADM Russ Crane, Speech to Australian Strategic Policy Institute on 5 Nov 08
3. VADM Russ Crane, Speech to Australian Strategic Policy Institute on 5 Nov 08
4. Geoffrey Till, Seapower, A Guide for the Twenty - First Century (Frank Cass Publishers, London, 2004) p. 4.