October - December 2001

Crow's Nest comment on Chief of Defence Force paper - 50th Anniversary of ANZUS 2001
Following the example of his predecessor Admiral Synnot, The Chief of the Defence Force, Admiral Barrie, has not hesitated to comment publicly on defence matters from time to time. In a Paper presented to the Anzus 50th Anniversary Conference held in Sydney on 30 June, Admiral Barrie referred to the strategic implications of rapid technological developments in the Asia-Pacific which he described as the fastest changing region in the world, an area 'home' to the two largest economies - the United States and Japan, the two most populous countries - China and India, and including the ten ASEAN states with a combined population of over 500 million; it also contains three of the five recognised nuclear powers and, more recently, two de fact nuclear States.
Pointing out that defence spending in the region had increased rather than decreased since the end of the cold war, due in the main to the ability of developing economies to afford new weapons and absorb new technology, the Admiral said …"A remarkable aspect of defence trends in the Asia-Pacific over the past decade is that new military technology that used to take years to come to the region is now readily available `off the shelf' and with very advanced performance characteristics. Indeed some manufacturing countries are selling weapons to customers before these weapons are available in their own armed forces".
Noting significant combat capability in the region, Admiral Barrie said that countries have legitimate needs for self-defence and to modernise and acquire defence platforms; he also spoke of the need "to develop an accompanying level of confidence in the Asia-Pacific that will enable changes to take place without creating anxiety between States".
While acknowledging the importance of capability expansion in the area, Admiral Barrie spoke of increasing concern about first, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery - ballistic missiles - and second, the growing threat from emergent technologies. "Because of the unpredictability and uncertainty they create a country possessing longer- range missiles, together with readily available intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology, obtains a sizeable advantage and a reach it would not other wise possess. This introduces complexities and instability in strategic relationships". Listing a number of countries that already possess long and intermediate range missiles, including China, India, Pakistan and North Korea - the latter "a major source of missile proliferation to other parts of the world, including to the Middle East, an already unstable and over-armed region" the Admiral said the proliferation of missiles was a dangerous development that needed to be discouraged: He stated that Australia understood the U.S. plan to develop a missile defence system "to defend against potential threats from States of concern and against the possibility of an accidental or unauthorised missile launch" and referred to Australia's belief that the option of strengthening the missile technology control regime, including increasing control over the transfer of technology, should be examined and penalties for breaches toughened.
The CDF then went on to deal with a second area of concern - cyber warfare, electronic strikes and computer hacking - particularly challenging because they posed threats out of proportion to the cost of investment and the vulnerability of modern societies - not least those of the United States and Australia.
Referring to new technologies such as directed energy and electromagnetic pulse weapons, Admiral Barrie said adversaries were likely to use cyber attacks to complicate deployment operations and that an estimated 30 nations have developed aggressive computer warfare programs.
How best to deal with the challenges of WMD and ballistic missiles as well as emerging technologies? Admiral Barrie suggests:

· The continuing presence of a fully engaged United States in the region,

· Good intelligence information and retention of the "knowledge edge",

· Extension of the network of defence relationship, and,

· Strengthened international security architecture to arrest the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as the way to meet challenges and maintain security and stability in the region.

Not quite "high tech" but very real nevertheless, the CDF added piracy and terrorism to the list of problems concerning the region and, as often as not, require traditional military methods to provide solutions. All in all, a thought-provoking paper by Admiral Barrie that deserved wider attention than it appears to have received.
Geoffrey Evans